Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 39.336755 42.752750 46.533213 51.069004 56.420713 62.609785 70.424488
2025-08-03 34.404556 38.812878 44.032818 50.808224 59.594385 70.958701 87.449327
2025-08-10 31.040885 35.819774 41.721601 49.787199 60.957771 76.672966 102.262984
2025-08-17 28.556345 33.487531 39.765561 48.683050 61.686556 81.301828 116.741787
2025-08-24 26.719408 31.742650 38.298731 47.917920 62.587862 86.174185 133.399544
2025-08-31 25.195608 30.248594 36.978954 47.125542 63.210942 90.607111 151.236413
2025-09-07 24.509723 29.795791 37.011064 48.258629 66.990544 101.449942 189.757627
2025-09-14 23.468428 28.769743 36.126438 47.862211 68.105383 107.554210 221.667122
2025-09-21 22.353489 27.565924 34.885063 46.757694 67.776206 110.591175 247.616849
2025-09-28 21.327622 26.428158 33.659631 45.553543 67.076100 112.637642 272.891407
2025-10-05 21.158809 26.492181 34.213261 47.304948 72.195858 129.909545 391.577014
2025-10-12 20.813343 26.274831 34.314640 48.290277 75.996060 145.722075 563.467376
2025-10-19 20.399775 25.955091 34.265216 49.066435 79.671283 163.763808 902.248626
2025-10-26 19.799722 25.328324 33.691322 48.845116 81.152089 176.118115 1412.619040
2025-11-02 19.098506 24.515764 32.769139 47.891763 80.789177 182.082407 2073.433809
2025-11-09 18.433090 23.729295 31.846307 46.858334 80.078789 186.607740 3227.049407
2025-11-16 17.875538 23.084747 31.121486 46.141519 80.033649 194.034714 7263.804336
2025-11-23 17.349979 22.468910 30.412809 45.398618 79.814293 200.864116 43721.764303
2025-11-30 17.190316 22.409079 30.620706 46.460781 84.435726 234.366974 NaN
2025-12-07 16.785874 21.951178 30.133207 46.089307 85.174914 249.329601 NaN
2025-12-14 16.290052 21.333575 29.347185 45.053547 83.915182 252.062577 NaN
2025-12-21 15.803241 20.716291 28.538805 43.923096 82.249938 251.561898 NaN
2025-12-28 15.803350 20.866175 29.051833 45.566871 88.925420 315.979987 NaN